Trump removal searches rise in US, but prediction markets see little chance of exit

Public interest in how a U.S. president can be removed from office has remained unusually high across several states, even as prediction markets increasingly indicate that President Donald Trump is likely to complete his current term.

Data compiled by iGaming and betting research firm VIP-Grinders shows elevated searches for terms including “how to impeach the president” and ways to remove a president without impeachment.

Wyoming recorded the highest search interest, with 84.6 searches per 100,000 residents, more than twice the national average of 36.9.

Vermont followed with 77.8 searches per 100,000 residents, while Alaska recorded 67.8 and North Dakota 55.9.

Florida, Trump’s home state, ranked fifth with 53.5 searches per 100,000 residents, putting it ahead of several much larger states in per-capita interest.

New York recorded the lowest level of interest, with an average of 16 searches per 100,000 residents.

Other states near the bottom of the ranking included Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts.

The search figures indicate strong public curiosity about presidential removal procedures, but they do not necessarily reveal whether people searching for the information support or oppose Trump.

Prediction markets, meanwhile, have offered a notably different picture of the president’s political prospects.

On Polymarket, the implied probability of Trump leaving office before 2027 fell from a peak of 20.5% in November 2025 to about 5.5% in August 2026.

The probability later increased slightly to around 6.5% by August 24, suggesting that traders currently see a relatively low likelihood of Trump leaving office before the end of the year.

The market probability had stood at 16.3% in April before declining to 11.3% in May, 10% in June and 7.4% in July.

Polymarket allows users to trade contracts linked to future events, with market prices generally reflecting the probability traders assign to a particular outcome.

A contract trading at six cents, for example, broadly indicates that participants are assigning a 6% probability to that outcome.

However, prediction markets are not definitive political forecasts because prices can change rapidly as new developments influence trader expectations.

The main “Trump out as President before 2027?” contract has generated approximately $10.9 million in trading volume since it began in November 2025.

Another contract focused on Trump leaving office by August 31 recorded about $1.8 million in trading volume before being resolved.

Joao Mourato, head of iGaming product at VIP-Grinders, said search activity can provide an indication of where political anxiety or interest is particularly strong.

He cautioned that Wyoming’s position does not establish whether residents want Trump to remain in office or leave it, only that the issue is receiving significant attention.

Mourato also highlighted Florida’s ranking as evidence that interest in the question extends beyond smaller states.

The contrasting trends point to a notable gap between online public curiosity and the expectations reflected in prediction markets.

While searches suggest that Americans continue to pay considerable attention to the possibility of presidential removal, market participants currently assign only a small probability to Trump leaving office before 2027.